Chapter 2: Estimating The Number Of Deaths
Before looking at any specific statistics regarding deaths from the vaccine, it is important to establish a framework for how to interpret these statistics.
The key word is consilience. This substack explains consilience well:
Consilience is when evidence from multiple, independent sources “converge,” or are in agreement, to support a conclusion.
In such a case, one would be justified in strongly believing a conclusion even when each piece of evidence is not a “slam dunk” on its own.
Here is an analogy: If I wanted to prove that glaciers in the alps are melting, if I used an unknown source from the 1600s that vaguely described how a singular glacier used to be larger, that wouldn’t be very convincing.
However, if I collected 100s of historical documents, most of them written by unknown or unimportant people, that described how 100s of glaciers used to be much larger. Then I used tree rings to show that trees grew slower during the middle ages, implying that it was colder during the middle ages. And finally, I provided an explanation for why temperatures should be rising, then my argument would be concrete.
Each individual evidence is weak, but as a whole, they are powerful.
Applying consilience to the issue of vaccines, while each statistic I provide in this and other chapters could be coincidental, a downright lie, or not even itself be particularly applicable, when evaluated as a whole they provide strong evidence.
Data from government databases of reported deaths:
There have been over 30,000 deaths reported to vaers, (a vaccine adverse event reporting system controlled by the US government). If you want to see the numbers get updated live, visit the cdc’s official website.
43,898 deaths have been reported to EudraVigilance, the European version of vaers.
There has never been a year before the covid vaccine rollout where the combined number of deaths from all vaccines reported to vaers exceeded 200 (source, see page 7). Which means that deaths reported to vaers increased a hundredfold.
Here is a chart of deaths reported to vaers by month (from the vaers website). The reports didn’t start at the end of 2021, when people were bitter about being required to get vaccinated by their employers, and, theoretically, were sending many complaints to vaers, but started very early on.
Studies estimating the total number of deaths from the vaccine:
Statisticians did a cost benefit analysis of the vaccine, estimating the number of lives saved and lives lost due to the vaccine by looking at excess deaths over time and vaccine doses over time from various locations in Europe and the US. They found that among old people, the vaccine reduced mortality; but among young people, the vaccine increased mortality. They also estimated the under reporting rate of VAERS in the US to be 20 - for every 20 people who die from the vaccine, only one will be reported to VAERS.
If you don’t believe just one singular study, there are others. For example, an investigation found that deaths among male teens increased 53 % following covid vaccination and correlated with the uptake of each dose.
From excess deaths seen among Medicare patients, it was estimated that there were 127,500 to 170,000 deaths among the Medicare patients alone (go to bottom of this website).
Steve Kirsch uses nine different independent analyses to show that vaccines deaths in the US exceed 150,000 (either through estimating the under reporting factor of vaers deaths or through looking at excess deaths; he also soundly disproves the idea that the deaths reported to vaers are coincidences) and he does a cost benefit analysis showing that the vaccine causes more deaths than it saves, especially among the young.
I admit that you could create a complex explanation for how all of these facts are either coincidences, fabrications, or cherry picking, but the simplest explanation is that the vaccine is slightly dangerous. By Occam's Razor, the simplest explanation is probably right.
I also must note: the burden of evidence doesn’t lie on random civilians to prove beyond a shadow of a doubt that the vaccine is slightly dangerous. The burden of proof lies on the manufacturer to prove that the vaccine is safe (which they failed to do when they prematurely terminated the phase 3 trials). All I need to show is that there is a reasonable risk that the vaccine is unsafe in order for my case to be salient.
My conclusion is that 1) the vaccine causes more deaths than it saves among the young. 2) It may save more lives among the old. 3) Vaccines are hard to get right, the first, second, and even third vaccine you develop will probably fail, statistically speaking, as I explained in Chapter 1.